A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
